What's going on with Ukraine? - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In Ukraine

What's going on with Ukraine? - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In UkraineDomestic situation in Ukraine before the presidential elections and possibly early parliamentary elections in 2009, which will unfold against the background of economic...What is happening with Ukraine, will have a value for USThe challenges for Ukraine in 20092009 - a year of challenge for our country. After the conflict between Russia and Georgia in August 2008, Kiev will have to deal with increasingly tough Russian foreign policy. The Kremlin, which regards Ukraine as part of their sphere of privileged interests, made clear their dissatisfaction with the desires of Kiev's integration into European and Evroatlanticheskoe community and try to destroy this course. There is a possibility that became more real after the August conflict, serious confrontation between Kiev and Moscow regarding topics such as geopolitical orientation of Ukraine and the black sea fleet.Domestic situation in Ukraine before the presidential elections and possibly early parliamentary elections in 2009, which will unfold against the backdrop of economic downturn and financial crisis. These factors (alone or in tandem with the policy of the Kremlin, aimed at destabilizing) can ignite internal friction concerning such topics as the status of the Russian language, geopolitical orientation, or Sevastopol, Crimea and the black sea fleet. These tensions, if they are activated, you can again open the possibility of the partition of Ukraine to the East and the West. This section has experienced erosion over the past fifteen years, but did not disappear. In case of extension of this fault may weaken the internal unity of the Ukrainian state and to foment internal political crisis, or a crisis in relations with Russia. In the most dangerous case of such a crisis could threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine.What is happening with Ukraine, will be of importance to Washington. Since the early 1990s, the American government gave Ukraine a special value. It has allocated billions of dollars of aid to facilitate the development of the country as a stable, independent, democratic state with a healthy market economy, integrated into the European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. Weakened the unity of the state or crisis (domestic or in relations with Russia) would prevent the progress of Ukraine on this path.Risks and scenariosThe protracted Ukrainian political season in 2009 would mean the continuation of weak governance and strengthening internal tensions in the country. Kiev also faces the risk of confrontation with Russia. In the best case, Ukraine will wickapedia without a major crisis. The Ukrainians had to deal with large political disturbances and has demonstrated the ability to find a compromise before events got out of control. Script vytsarapyvanija may be the most likely. But other scenarios, although they have low or even very low probability, represent major risks for Ukraine and for U.S. interests.If the policy paralyses the Ukrainian government, it is therefore nothing will get to the bottom in the area of democratic or economic reforms. The electorate will become even more cynical. Public frustration may call into question the vision of the future of Ukraine, which emerged after the Orange revolution: a democratic state that is joined to Europe. Re-opening the topic to the East and the West would weaken the unity of the state. The carelessness and lack of common vision would preclude cooperation with the West and would have fed "Ukraine fatigue. Kiev would feel less confident in relation to their ties with the West at the time when he can become more decisive confrontation with the Kremlin.Internal crisisMore serious situation would develop if internal friction led to the rupture. Acute internal dispute with regards to Ukraine's relations with NATO, which will be the main foreign policy issue in 2009, can kindle internal friction, to provoke a confrontation between Parliament and President Viktor Yushchenko, and to weaken, if not destroy, any basis on which could be built national consensus on foreign policy of Ukraine.On the topic of NATO and the black sea fleet could inflame tensions in the Crimea, causing a resurgence of separatist sentiment in the Peninsula and in Eastern Ukraine. Kiev successfully strangled separatism in the mid-1990s, but has not paid his final. There would be a significant clever management on the part of Kiev, the biggest risk may be clashes between protesters-separatists and Ukrainian internal security forces. Such collisions may fuel a broader passions, causing a crisis that will challenge the country's ability to maintain its territorial integrity.Russian involvement in Ukrainian internal crisisThe Kremlin believes that unstable Ukraine is in its interests. Such instability makes it an unattractive political model for Russians, as well as unattractive as a candidate for membership in NATO or the European Union. Moscow (which has its own geopolitical goals) may exacerbate internal tensions in Ukraine, for example, stepping up its rhetoric against the relations NATO-Ukraine or provoking ethnic Russians in Sevastopol, so they aggressively expressed their opinion on the black sea fleet. Nationalists in Russia will grasp at any separatist manifestations in the Crimean Peninsula to revive disputes, which were conducted in the early 1990s about the alleged illegality of the transfer of Crimea or Sevastopol Ukraine.Moscow, moreover, can get caught in a trap of his own rhetoric, if in Sevastopol will be civil unrest and clashes with Ukrainian security forces. The presence of the black sea fleet would provide a ready means for Russia to protect local ethnic Russians, creating a dangerous situation in which the Russian naval infantry and the internal Ukrainian security forces can enter into direct collision with unpredictable consequences.The crisis of Ukrainian-Russian relationsMoscow and Kiev are consistently active war of words on a wide range of topics. Some of them can provoke the biggest crisis in relations between the two countries. One of the possible areas of controversy may be the decision of Gazprom to cut gas supplies, similar scenarios were observed in January 2006 and 2009, a New gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia might again be transformed into a wider European energy crisis.The Russian decision to oppose a more active efforts Kiev aimed at integration into NATO (possibly with the aim to stir up internal opposition) can also cause large-scale crisis. Yushchenko is unlikely to recede in the face of Russian threats. Moscow may start escalating tension, reducing the supply of gas by introducing other economic sanctions, or through conspicuous military steps, for example, launched new army troops closer to Ukraine border.



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