NBU changes his policy not for the better! - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In Ukraine

NBU changes his policy not for the better! - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In UkraineLast week the national Bank officially announced that he intends to radically change the method of calculating the foreign exchange position of commercial banks...Position from the topLast week the national Bank officially announced that he intends to radically change the method of calculating the foreign exchange position of commercial banks (the corresponding resolution of the NBU No. 109 is registered in the Ministry of justice).It is significant that three weeks ago the Ministry of justice approved the decision No. 107, which the regulator abolished the separate limits on open currency positions , which, in fact, was the beginning of a revolution in currency regulation of banks. If will come into force and decree No. 109, currency position will be calculated without taking account of the reserves formed by the Bank in foreign currency for credit operations.Recall: according to the NBU resolution No. 279 dated 06.07.2000, the banks from reserves to cover credit risks in the currency in which the loan was made. The amount of reserves depends on the quality of the loan and the calculation of ratios currency positions set by the NBU, is added to the "short" foreign currency position of the Bank (or subtracted from "long" currency position).For example, the financial institution has attracted a Deposit of $100, then these resources provided the loan is also $100. The fact of formation of reserves under this loan of $20 means that the Bank does not rule out the possibility that the borrower will not return him $100, and only $80. At the same time to return to the depositor will have all $100. It turns out that the Bank's liabilities in foreign currency hypothetically exceed the net assets in that currency, i.e. there is a "short" foreign currency position. To balance (to close), the Bank should pay more currency in the amount of formed reserve, in our example $20. The ability of the Bank to buy foreign currency for their own purposes is limited to standard NBU "long" currency position (H13-1). Its meaning - the Bank's assets do not exceed its liabilities in a particular currency by more than 20% of regulatory capital.According to the national Bank, on March 1, the total regulatory capital of the banking sector amounted by 134.5 billion USD. i.e. theoretically banks could accumulate as a reserve for their currency positions to $3.5 billion. However, according to the NBU, the bankers made use of this option less than half. On March 1, the value of H13-1 for the system as a whole was 8.7%. That is "excess" currency banks did not exceed $1.5 billion.However, it should be noted that the bankers were not and the urgent need to fully exploit the currency position limit. The fact that the allocation of foreign exchange reserves on the "short" foreign currency position purely arithmetically increased the ability of banks to purchase foreign exchange for their own (often speculative) purposes by the amount of accumulated reserves."The situation reached absurd: referring to the deteriorating quality of the credit portfolio in foreign currency, banks doformirovyvat such loans reserves and then bought the currency for balancing foreign exchange position," says a source in the NBU Board.Indeed, for the fourth quarter of 2008, the volume of reserves in the banking system as a whole almost doubled and at 1 January 2009 reached 42.5 billion UAH. Since 60% of the loan portfolio is denominated in foreign currency, it can be concluded that the Bank foreign currency reserves amount to at least $3.3 billion (with a proportional distribution of reserves). If to take into account the devaluation of the hryvnia, which has led to deterioration in the quality of exactly foreign currency loans, it is possible to assume that the amount of foreign currency reserves reached us $5 billion As you know, the largest share of foreign currency loans in the portfolios of banks with foreign capital.Thus, in the banking bins (with reserves and open currency position) is now about $6.5 billion of "excess" currency purchased in store. By the way, Deputy head of the NBU Alexander Savchenko assesses the amount of currency in reserve positions of banks in the $6-7 billion And according to the STA, in the fourth quarter of 2008, the banks acquired within the foreign currency position of $9.8 billion (apparently, part of that money was sold).Now, if the decree No. 109 will come into force, banks will no longer be able to accumulate currency reserves. In order not to break the standard Bank, they will be forced to sell foreign currency in excess of $3-4 billion These figures were announced by the Director of Treasury of a large Bank with foreign capital, on condition of anonymity. In his words, to bring the indicators in line with regulatory requirements, the banks will have two months."These measures are aimed at stabilizing the functioning of the foreign exchange market by limiting the ability of banks to transfer hryvnia resources in foreign currency", - stated in the message NBU. And here Sergey Alekseenko, Deputy Chairman of the management Board of the Bank "Kontrakt", believes that "this decree, the national Bank not only wants to stabilize the exchange market, but also creates unfavorable conditions for lending in foreign currency, stimulates the collapse of the currency portfolios. Not to say that bankers were not warned about the planned innovations in advance. Because this idea first Deputy Chairman of the NBU Anatoly Shapovalov expressed even at the end of February, trying to knock another speculative attack on the hryvnia.It seems that the filing of decree No. 109 to registration in the Ministry of justice sparked selling of dollars by banks.However, bankers are of the opinion that the new method of calculation of standards will allow to artificially inflate the "long" currency position of banks, which will expose the risks of the entire banking system. "Formally (on paper) the banks will be "long" currency position, but actually (according to the economic nature), they will be "short". If the hryvnia will again begin to devalue, and the service quality of loan portfolios will continue to deteriorate, banks run the risk of incurring huge losses. They just won't be the reserve currency for the settlement of its liabilities - external borrowings, deposits," warned the Deputy Chairman of the Board of a major Bank with national capital, who requested anonymity.The interviewed bankers, believe that the national Bank will strive to knock the market rate to the level of official - 7, 7 grn./USD. However, on the wave of increased supply of foreign currency, the hryvnia has the potential to grow even up to 7.5 UAH./USD. "The market will be thrown several billion dollars, the supply will exceed demand, the dollar may even be below RS 7.5./USD," admits Sergey Alekseenko. Last week the dollar fell by almost 5%. April 9, interbank rates ranged from 8 UAH./USD.According to the NBU, the weighted average rate on the interbank market that day amounted 7,84 USD./USD.

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