The crisis of "the chain" who's the weak link? - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In Ukraine

The crisis of How do you evaluate the future of the world economy experts, which is already in 2006-2007 felt the depth of its current recession?The crisis in the real estate market caused a chain reaction and caused a universal crisisOne such lucky forecasters - American Professor of Economics and former adviser to President Clinton, International monetary Fund, Nourel Roubini.In early 2007, he announced the imminent start of the real estate crisis. He predicted that the result will be a wave of defaults, which, in turn, will cause a chain reaction in other industries.In Europe his words heard later, at the end of 2008. It was at this time operated his company RGE Monitor started to produce a fair share of criticism of the financial prospects of the markets of Eastern Europe.According to Roubini, the crisis in the region will bring banks with Western capital. The presence of such a business, he said in more of a negative for the economies of these countries.Such inference he made the argument that pumping money parent institutions banks from their national affiliates, which negatively affects the balance of payments of these countries.Speaking about other causes of Eastern European problems, the expert pointed out that she was the constant stimulation of consumption among the population. For developing countries, in his opinion, this is not worth it.In early 2009, Roubini issued a disappointing forecast for Eastern Europe. For the region in 2009-2010 he predicted a whole bunch of problems of stagnation, recession and inflation.One of the most paradigmatic example is Ukraine. In particular, the analyst expressed doubt that the resumption of economic growth even in 2011.However, according to him, in all Eastern European countries, the recession will last into 2010, and in 2011. The expert sees only one country, down to the sad list. This is Turkey, with its developed industry.Speaking about the US, Roubini sharply criticizes the Bush administration. In particular, he recalls a "disservice" to the national economy in the form of unlimited assistance to the banking sector.At the end of February 2009 in the Wall Street Journal, he noted that only one Banc of America eleven times took out loans, each of which exceeded $ 35 billion. However, such efforts did not improve the situation of the institution. In other words, the funds corny was eaten.Professor repeatedly noted that, despite the revision of assessments of real property for natural persons, the situation in the economy of the country will not change until the revised total loans.Credited homeowners will pay the same amount, only over a longer period of time. Roubini calls for reducing the total debt by the partial restructuring.Because these payments will be stretched in time, they will not encourage the consumption of products, and hence its production. If a positive resolution of these issues, the expert predicts us economic growth by 2010.Another analyst with a world name, Christopher woods, has been working with CLSE. He specializes in the Asian markets and reputed to be the biggest expert on economic conditions in the region.On its account - successfully predicted the crisis of 1997-1998. On the approximation of the current crisis, he mentioned three years ago. Then the expert suggested investors to sell all of the assets related to real estate in the United States. His prediction has come true in full, except the exact date of the beginning of the crisis.According to his expectations, by 2010 the price of gold will increase in three times and will exceed 3,5 thousand dollars per Troy ounce. This point of view he defends since 2001.The cause of drastic changes in the value of the precious metal analyst sees not in stock dynamics, and the loss of their positions U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. In his opinion, only gold in the current environment can be a real guarantor of the savings.Woods also predicts the collapse of Eastern European currencies. This, in turn, will increase the pressure on Western economies, because many Western European and American investors have invested in them heavily.In respect of the U.S. economy in the analyst, not the more optimistic scenarios - he predicts it a deep recession.Their hopes he associates mainly with short-term nationalization of banks in the expectation that they would later sell. This step, in particular, was undertaken in the Nordic countries in 1993 and 1994. Then the States for a while took control of the commercial banks of their countries.All of the illiquid assets were transferred to the so-called bad banks that sold these assets after the crisis. The exit from recession has provided a "clean" banks that continued full-time work and were able to raise the market.Separately woods talks about the importance of consistent national economic policy of the United States."If helped other banks, why not help Lehman Brothers?" he asks. So, in his opinion, the Bush administration has only given rise to a distrust of their own system of salvation.Asia, says the analyst should understand its main market, the United States will not rise quickly. Accordingly, the Asian economy will suffer no less.For Japan in 2009, he predicts the unemployment rate at 10%, the resulting depreciation of the national currency and increase consumer confidence in the economy. He urged Japanese politicians to active reforms, otherwise the growing prosperity in the country can permanently stop.The analyst believes that the most profitable investments possible when investing in the economies of China and India.The main competitive advantage of the middle Kingdom, he calls a significant amount of foreign exchange reserves, with which it is possible to recover the national economy without the involvement of external loans.According to the expert, China and India have become almost the only countries in the world, the Central banks which have already started dealing with the crisis in the real estate sector in advance. Accordingly, they can now direct their efforts to other areas.The potential of the Indian economy, woods adds, is to consumptionIndian banks were the least affected by the crisis. However, due to the negative Aldabergenov trend, the shares of these institutions has depreciated quite strongly.This suggests that the banking sector in the near future will be focused on the strong interest of financiers.Speaking of the Chinese economy, the browser Financional Times John Waters drew attention to features of the uptrend February 2009 on the Shanghai stock exchange.Then the site showed a 30% growth, despite the publication of news about a 40 percent reduction in Chinese imports in the previous year. According to experts, this phenomenon can be represented as one of the strengths of a controlled economy.Now in China demonstrates the increased supply of money. Banks are increasingly embedded in economic stimulus, boosting its financial performance. Banks lend, because it is the main method of their earnings.It is hardly necessary to absolutize the value of these forecasts. Disposable guessing even such significant events as the global financial crisis, does not prove the infallibility of the expert's views. In the modern economy there are too many variables to anticipate which is simply impossible.Agree except with the thesis about "observationencompasses" scenarios out of the crisis for Ukraine. I mean, 2009-2010 will be heavy enough.

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