The new year PRESENTED a NEW exchange RATE! - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In Ukraine

The new year PRESENTED a NEW exchange RATE! - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In UkraineHryvnia exchange rate had stabilized after a prodigious leap. Optimists immediately made a prediction...In the new year with a new course?Hryvnia exchange rate had stabilized after a prodigious leap. Optimists immediately made a prediction: everything will be fine. The pessimists did not think so, and since the beginning of January, the interbank market has started to confirm the correctness of the latter.Promised three years of waiting...On the eve of a protracted holidays General positive mood spread to the financial sector. Anyway, the press began to migrate comments from bankers, promising though not the appreciation of the national currency, but at least its strengthening. Christmas and new year-Christmas race had passed away, and had time to pay attention to exchange rate fluctuations. It turned out that the implementation of the optimistic scenario went wrong: the rule "no more than eight, cautiously promised a couple of weeks ago, the interbank market has exceeded with a vengeance.On 9 January, the national Bank of Ukraine continued to remain within the "strengthening" - the purchase of 7.7 UAH / USD, sell - 8,21. And, despite the intentions of the last months to equate the official rate to interbank, in fact, the regulator is significantly behind. The eighth of January, the auction ended in the range of 8.75-8,815 hryvnia per dollar, approximately the ninth ibid - 8,6-8,8. "Street" same course "signal" in appreciation accepted the cheers on - sale in many exchangers quickly exceeded nine hryvnia. Contrary to the expectations of many household and projections of some of the hryvnia to rise while no plans.Supporters views about the upcoming stabilization of the exchange rate in their forecasts relied on several factors. Home "portion" of hopes were pinned on the regulatory activities of the national Bank, announced in late December. As for more pleasant circumstances anticipated the removal of restrictions on the size of the reserves of the Central Bank of "name" the IMF is in accordance with the requirements of the International monetary Fund at the end of 2008 they had to be at least 26.7 billion. In addition, many bankers had hoped that the foreign exchange market significantly enough due to sales from the population - holidays, gifts, holidays - there is something to spend money.To talk about the real significance of at least one factor on today's early - the new policy of the NBU have yet to enter into force. Yes at auction and the controller is still acting very modestly. The contribution to the overall stabilization gust can make every Ukrainian, too, is not so simple. Contrary to the expectations of some experts, it is unlikely that "personal" currency boom should happen in January - the vast majority of pre-holiday spending fell still at the end of last year. Unless, overspend during the holidays people will start spending NZ currency. By the way, it is the expectation that all "excess" currency Ukrainians already passed, could adjust the cash rate. It is very clearly changed the numbers in the window exchangers after the bulk of the inventory was sold relatively cheaply, and to buy dollars/euros to repay another loan payments to many yet.If we abstract from the contribution to exchange rate fluctuations makes each individual exchanger (by the way, you can remember that the currency exchange offices operating under Agency agreements, from January 1, had to stop working), all hopes are automatically placed on the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. But even with the promised progress for the better, rely on the omnipotence of the regulator, perhaps, too early. Just keep the official rate significantly below the interbank and say that the dollar cannot and should not" is not enough. The "promise of the end of last year was of a political nature: it was necessary to bring down a wave of criticism, which "went" on the leadership of the Central Bank. Then there was the illusion that a stabilization, because the President, through the representatives of its Secretariat strongly recommended to strengthen the national currency. At the same time, the instruments through which it was supposed to do, have not been demonstrated" - shared his point of view with "Details" Director of economic programs at the Razumkov Center Vasyl Yurchyshyn. Thus, it appears that, first, the NBU seriously need to move from promises and allusions to real action, otherwise his role, as well as the fall will be reduced to the observation of a rapidly changing situation. And, secondly, the commander of "Vira - lane" the powers that be do not forget about the real situation not only in the financial sphere, but also in the economy as a whole.Can not wait?Objective reasons for the growth of the hryvnia is not enough. On the one hand, the us dollar is strengthening across the world (promise rapid growth in the first quarter of 2009, followed by a gradual rise in the second). Despite the problems of the U.S. economy, many countries 'evergreen' money continue to be a kind of "measure of all things". Ukraine is not an exception.On the other hand, for the strengthening of the hryvnia is not enough to protect the currency market from unhealthy fluctuations and speculation, relevant and strong economic base. And with the latter the situation is not too rosy. The position of the Ukrainian economy can significantly erode promised in 2009 the fall in GDP growth and recession in many industrial sectors. Particularly critical the situation is now - at the time when the gas contracts with Russia has not been signed yet, and the experts can only guess what the price of "blue fuel" will not survive the chemical industry, metallurgy and so on. Another destabilizing factor for the economy as a whole may be the budget. Inherent in the original version of the macro indicators look too optimistic, but it has yet to perform in the background of declining revenues. And to expect that countries with a "staggering" economic system will be "healthy" currency is a bit naive.Another blow to the stability of the hryvnia could be the situation in the foreign markets. One of the few optimistic forecasts at the beginning of 2009 had involved a fairly rapid exit from the crisis, some sectors of the economy - for example, metallurgy, food industry, agricultural sector. And potential causes not only an increase in demand on the international market (although, he does too), but the devaluation of the hryvnia, automatically increasing the competitiveness of Ukrainian products and their joy of foreign exchange receipts. Cheap hryvnia can not only stimulate the exporters, but also to do what the government wants is to stop the growth of imports and to rectify the trade imbalance. "Little Ukrainians" can wholeheartedly complain about the rapid rise in prices of foreign products, household appliances, cars (aided and Patriotic legislators, increasing customs duties). And the state reduction "imported solvency" of the population in the conditions of crisis can only comfort. And on the horizon looms the planned large-scale privatization, which is expected to save the level of foreign investment - at an inexpensive hryvnia foreign capital to invest more profitable. Of course, if it has one.Thus in direct conflict with the export-import guidelines devaluation of the national currency becomes extremely fashionable in the last days of the "gas factor". It's simple: the higher the dollar, the more hryvnias will go into the payment of "blue fuel". So - is already more expensive, the cost price of industrial products that is bad for the exporters, which "heats" dear dollar. Population expensive gas too to please cannot - it will automatically entail the increase of prices for utilities. Indeed, in light of the coming adjustment cost of imported and local gas (one of the conditions of the IMF loan) - intransigence "Gazprom" can backfire every family.With high probability, in the coming months, the hryvnia exchange rate will fluctuate within the divergent interests of exporters: that and the cheaper production cost, and gas too. How will these interests be averaged (and if I can do) is unclear.


  > > > >  

Похожие статьи

Ваше имя
Ваша почта
Город, область
Рассылка комментариев





Ввести код: