What will the coming year?! Economics, politics... LIFE! - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In Ukraine

What will the coming year?! Economics, politics... LIFE! - News about real estate, Kiev, Kyiv region. Real Estate In UkraineInvestment company Phoenix Capital released its forecast of macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy...Next year will be the most difficult for Ukraine since the early 1990sInvestment company Phoenix Capital released its forecast of macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy in 2009. Phoenix Capital believes that next year will be the most difficult for Ukraine since the early 1990s.As reported Корреспондент.net at Phoenix Capital, according to experts of the investment Bank, in 2009, the fall in real GDP of Ukraine will amount to 9.9%, inflation – at least 19%, the average rate of the national currency will be set at 12 UAH/$.So, according to analysts of the company, despite the fact that certain industries, such as metallurgy, begin to recover after a significant drop in production, the peak of the crisis has not yet passed.We expect that the peak in the first quarter of next year, when the downturn in the industry will spread to the services sector, said in a prepared company overview Ukrainian strategy 2009: When the weak becomes strong.Experts predict that Phoenix Capital, most strongly from the crisis next year will hurt the banking sector and retail trade. The key problems of the banking sector will be a high level of non-payments on loans (about 30%) and the need of service and payments on debt raised in 2005-2008.In turn, the negative dynamics in the retail sector will be driven by the decrease in the purchasing power of households and high denominated in dollars debt load of the main operators."In 2009, we should expect further devaluation of the hryvnia. The reason for the devaluation will serve the need for debt payments denominated in dollars, and the growth of the money supply due to planned government social payments", - experts say the Phoenix Capital.At the same time, starting from the second half of 2009, the expected devaluation of the hryvnia will play into the hands of the Ukrainian economy and will become the main driving force of the economy.Thanks to the devaluation of the Ukrainian metal products, products of the agricultural sector and the food industry will become competitive in foreign markets that will lead the industry out of the depression and will lead to the resumption of growth of export earnings."We expect the resumption of exports in II-III quarters of 2009, and the General improvement in macroeconomic performance since the fourth quarter", - stated in the review of Phoenix Capital.At the same time, under the baseline scenario prepared by Phoenix Capital, the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine are as follows:- Real GDP growth in 2009 will decrease by 9.9%;- Average annual exchange rate will be 12 UAH./$, and will reach 13.5 UAH/$ by the end of 2009;- The budget deficit will reach 72 billion UAH.



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